The transition from fossil fuels to electrification is critical for meeting climate commitments, but is our electricity system ready? A recent Clean Air Council webinar brought together experts from Toronto Hydro, Burlington Hydro, the City of Toronto, the City of Burlington, and Power Advisory to tackle this question.
The Shift from Summer to Winter Peaks:
A major focus of the discussion was Ontario’s anticipated shift from a summer to a winter electricity demand peak—expected by the mid-2030s. The adoption of heat pumps for building and water heating will drive this transition. While peak electricity periods are the most challenging and expensive to plan for, Ontario’s electricity grid, designed to handle summer cooling demands, has significant capacity to support this transition from fossil fuels to electrification for building heating.
Interestingly, heat pumps not only address winter heating needs but also offer a more efficient cooling solution, potentially reducing summer peak demand. This dual benefit underscores the transformative role air and ground heat pumps can play in supporting the electrification of building heating and transportation.
Electrifying Transportation vs. Heating
The panel also explored the differences in electricity demand flexibility between transportation and building heating. While electric vehicle (EV) charging can often be shifted to off-peak hours through price signals, heating demands are less flexible. This means that while price signals can drive EV charging behaviour, they are likely to be less influential in changing winter heating schedules.
The main takeaway from the discussion?
Claims that electrification of buildings and transportation will “break” the electricity system—often perpetuated by fossil fuel interests—are vastly overstated.
Efficiency vs. Big Infrastructure Bias
Ontario’s energy system has historically prioritized large-scale generation and transmission projects over efficiency and local solutions like distributed energy resources (DERs). For example, the 2019 Achievable Potential Study capped its willingness to pay for efficiency measures at 4 cents per kWh, while significantly higher costs for new generation are routinely accepted. This imbalance skews investments away from cost-effective solutions like efficiency and DERs.
Fortunately, progress is being made. New programs, such as the IESO’s Energy Performance Program (offering incentives of 15 cents/kWh for peak summer savings) and the Home Energy Saver program for heat pumps, are starting to level the playing field. However, Ontario needs many more of these initiatives to accelerate the transition.
Building Grid Resilience
Climate resilience is an increasingly important focus for Ontario’s electricity system. Severe weather events—high winds, ice storms, and flooding, can impact the electricity system. Misinformation related to the capability of fossil fuel furnaces to provide heating during a power outage was called out. Furnaces need a fan to function, and as such, they will not provide heat during an electrical power outage. The only resilience value fossil fuels provide is related to the use of fireplaces and stoves, which can be lit manually and thereby function during a power outage. Distributed solutions like solar PVs and battery storage offer promising resilience benefits, especially as their costs continue to decline.
Key Action Areas for Utilities and Municipalities
There was much discussion about how utilities and municipalities can collaborate to ensure electrification readiness.
- Utilities and municipalities should identify which new developments are best suited to advance electrification.
- Increasing transparency on where the distribution system can accommodate solar installations.
- Utilities should assess the state of their distribution system for electrification and incorporate electrification needs into their long-term investment plans.
Breaking Down Silos
The overarching theme? Engagement and Collaboration. More Local Distribution Companies need to engage with their municipalities to better understand the readiness of their distribution system for electrification and how the necessary electrification investments will be brought into their investment plans. Breaking down silos within Ontario’s energy planning system is essential to drive efficient, equitable, and beneficial electrification. This transition isn’t just about meeting climate goals—it’s about ensuring a more efficient, cost-effective, and reliable energy system for all Ontarians.
By Gaby Kalapos, Executive Director